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The Construction of Ancient Hydrological Model

2017-03-17 Sustainable Water and Environment Research Group

(1)Title:Reconstruction assessment of historical land use: A case study in the Kamo River basin, Kyoto, Japan

Abstract:Reconstruction assessment of historical land use can be useful for understanding historical conditions and the impact of long-term land-use change. This study establishes a new method to estimate historical land use based on a set of basic rules generated from the comparison of present land-use and historical documents. This method has been formalized in the paleo-land-use reconstruction (PLUR) program, allowing users to quickly reconstruct historical land use using historical information. The 1843,1902 and 1927 historical land use conditions were generated using the PLUR model for the Kamo River basin (KRB). Our results show that between 1902 and 1976, three golf courses (Ohara Public course, Kamigamo course and Funayama course) replaced forest land in the KRB. As a result of agricultural development, the area occupied bypaddyelds in 1843 was 2.48 km2 less than that in 1902. Urban areas increased from1843 to 1976, mainly reecting declining coverage of paddy elds after 1902. The approach presented in this studycanbe used to support land-use change analyses and reconstruction of paleo-hydrology. This study also provides a discussion of the major drivers of land use change.

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 2Title:Palaeoood simulation of the Kamo River basin using a grid-cell distributed rainfall run-off model

Abstract: Land-use change and human activities have dramatic implications for water resources,especially through impacts on hydrology and water quality.Wecharacterise the impact of land-use change on floods through the reconstruction of palaeofloods events and the estimation of discharge during extreme rainfall events under the historical environment using the grid-Cell Distributed Rainfall Run-off Model Version 3 (CDRMV3). Historical land use maps were digitised using the Palaeoland-Use Reconstruction (PLUR) programme as the input data for CDRMV3. Palaeoflood simulations show the delay and the reduction of the peak discharge under 1902 land use in the Kamo River basin because of increases in coverage of forest and paddy fields compared with 1976 land use. Lower discharge and earlier peak discharge time are estimated under historical land use and compared with conditions under present land use. The results of the palaeoflood simulations under extreme rainfall events create a better understanding of palaeoenvironmental conditions and their potential impact on flood management while suggesting important implications for resource management under land use and climate change.

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